I have posted this else where in various forms but it is a laundry list.

Currently, the Big-12 pulls in 40.9 million per annum per member. Bowlsby has conferred with ESPN and reported that the figure will drop roughly 14 million with the exit of Texas and Oklahoma, whatever year that takes place. Speculatively, the Big-12 people that say anything - not many who do. That seems to be the bar for a new media deal, Bowlsby has said he hopes for more. That is his hob to say that and try to get that. But, if not, 26.9 million is the new pay out per annum per member. Each year the Big-12 deal goes up a 20 to 30 million in total for a few million more per school but in the last two years various events have actually caused it to drop.

In the past, the Big-12 wanted to explore expansion and Texas was always the veto vote and by default the other Texas schools lined up behind with pressure from the power brokers in government and boosters. This was why Houston was DOA, it would have been yet another vote for Texas to cast in future interactions.

At this point, Texas and Oklahoma have made it official they are leaving and will depart on July 1 2025. However, they are in negotiations with Bowlsby and ESPN about a shorter window with an exit fee involved. Bylaws state that the exit fee is equal to twice the current media rights deal payout. That figure is 40.9 x 2 = 81.8 million each for Texas and Oklahoma and a minimum window of 18 even with the exit fee, which would mean staying through the 2022/2023 season and only leaving a year early. Hardly worth it.

Bowlsby has pulled back on his "proof" of ESPN tampering because he has stated it is better for both parties that such things are not publicly shared. It is assumed horse trading is going on and that Bowlsby is working to draft a new Big-12 media deal for post exit. If the parties can reach an agreement, Texas and Oklahoma will only play in 2022 year, leaving on July 1 2022.

In this regard, even though Texas and Oklahoma are leaving, the payout is essentially coming from ESPN who owes Texas 160 million from over due LHN payments. ESPN can't just pay the Big-12 instead and walk away. Many legal issues involving that course. But, both Texas and Oklahoma have the means to pay and walk right away from other sources.

The underlying issue is that all of this happened a year too soon. Texas A&M broke the news because the SEC basically broke their gentleman's agreement that no other Texas school would be added - especially Texas. It is believed that when ESPN balked on increasing the Big-12 media deal to SEC levels, Texas and Oklahoma used that response to warrant moving to the SEC. It is pretty obvious it was a just cover to move them both to the SEC. However, the SEC was aware of this because their belief was that the new CFP-12 was being loosely drafted with no conference cap and with these two new additions, the SEC might get in as many as 6 or even 7 teams from a 16 team SEC.

Because Texas A&M blabbed, the CFP-12 talks have been put on hold and the SEC said it was nothing important them anyway and a 4-team playoff is fine with them. That is just coverage for being caught up to no good.

So, at this point we have the Big-12 with 8 members, none of whom can go anywhere because:

A) None of them 81.9 million laying around
B) No one wants them and the all of the legal entanglements still to unravel

Worse, ESPN tried to muddy the water by talking to the AAC in hopes of getting that conference to take on 5 Big-12 teams for a larger media deal beyond their 8 million per member per annum. If the remaining 8 drop to 3 members, the Big-12 would no longer exist and thus no one would pay anything or be forced to wait. Of course ESPN is not an officer for the Big-12 and this runs right into many legal issues. Bowlsby blew up at this news. He was right to do so and he issued a Cease and Desist over it.

Everyone took the news that this made the Big-12 Dead and that the AAC was the stable port. But it is actually the other way around. The Big-12 has gone through no changes other than losing two members at some unknown future date and being paid an unknown amount of money. The Big-12 still holds its P5 status and all that goes with that.

The CFP-12 talks included provisions for all P5 conference participation as well as G5 and Notre Dame access. That is unlikely to change. Win and you are in if you are in the top of the ranking at the end of the season unless there is a conference champion provision. The entire CFP-12 structures is being looked at in a new light now. There will be more rules.

So, we have the remaining 8 that can go no where, and will get a boatload of money at some point and no Texas to rain on every idea that comes along to make the conference better.

Assuming Bowlsby can reach an accord with ESPN, instant stability will come there first more than likely because ESPN has been fingered as a villain in all of this publicly. Assuming a deal can be reached, a new media deal will be announced to start when the old one expires including provisions for a CCG and adding up to 8 new members.

Talking with any conference is hard, so many hoops and time involved. But the one member that can be engaged immediately is BYU. BYU has some warts and will never be invited into the Pac-12. The Big Ten does not want them and the SEC is too far away. The ACC could invite them but they two parties have zero in common and it would not work for BYU that would always be 2700 miles away and 2 time zones. It is not happening.

BYU must have a conference in the new CFP-12. The CFP-12 will make a seat for Notre Dame and was going to do an open seat for a G5 representative but it was unlikely to ever bye BYU. The Big-12 already has a lot of experience dealing with religious schools because TCU and Baylor are both Christian universities. This is not a serious issue for them.

The next three - there has to be 4 coming in at the same time - will build up the Big-12 to 12 for play in 2023. The 2022 season is likely to only be 8 schools. That could change but I see no reason to rush this stuff. If so great, if not, it is not the end of the world.

The list of options is obvious:

Boise State
Cincinnati
Houston
Memphis
SMU
UCF
USF

and a few others, but those are my list.

To go along with BYU in 2023, add Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston. Set up a Championship Game for the end of 2023's football season.

Arriving in 2024 are Boise State, SMU, UCF and USF. While the first 4 are pretty good choices, many would not include Memphis and would pick UCF instead and call it done.

But, we have seen 16 is the new 12.

Memphis brings a huge, rich sponsor, Fed EX and access to the Liberty which may be needed in this new world of shifting arrangements.

The last four also have concerns but nothing awful. If you are traveling to Florida you want to do so every year to keep the budget at the same level. Visit UCF year one, have USF at home and then reverse that in year and so on. The travel budget stays the same. You do this to recruit in Florida and for exposure and potentially Florida bowls. Both have decent markets although markets are a thing of the old set up. It is all about being a NAME BRAND now and little else.

Boise State is an easy choice and would be a good partner and SMU, centuries ago, when cheating was the norm was a good program. The NCAA hit them with Death Penalty and they never recovered. They could. They are also another Christian school and sit in the Dallas market, such as that matters.

I am not going to get into alignment, I will leave that to others. But that is who I would invite. The first thing most will say is that not one of these teams equals Texas or Oklahoma. True.

They are not required to do so, only Texas and Oklahoma can equal Texas and Oklahoma and they are leaving. What these teams need to be average...better than Kansas and most years K-State. Cincinnati, UCF, Boise State, BYU, Houston, most years can make that claim, the other 4, debate it. But, this is not about super duper quality members, this is about filling out a reasonable roster of schools that WANT to be a part of something and HAVE NO OTHER choice so they appreciate where they have landed.

Neither Texas or Oklahoma will feel that way about the SEC, nor will they been as equals for a long time.

At this point there is no AAC. What is left will move up some CUSA members, renegotiate their ESPN deal downward and CUSA may just die out because the MAC is not going to get anyone to move out.

I would assume the final media deal will be less than the ACC's but not by much. But, it must be remembered, the BIg-12 retains T3 media rights and those are producing incomes for each member exceeding 10 million per annum per member. WVU gets just a tad bit more than 15 million currently. So any deal needs to plop another 10 million plus on top before doing straight-line comparisons.

There you have it.